Uncertainty around crypto regulation in the US
According to The Block, the crypto industry has diverging views on the likelihood that Washington will pass crypto legislation by 2026. Estimates range from 25% to 60%.
A key factor that may influence the fate of this bill is the potential return of Donald Trump to the US presidency. His position and actions during a second term could largely determine whether a new crypto law is passed or not.
Analysts also point to the importance of stablecoin yields. If their yields continue to grow, the probability of the bill's passage will also increase, as regulators will be interested in tighter control over this crypto sector.
Possible scenarios
Positive scenario: If Trump returns to the White House and stablecoin yields grow, the chances of passing a new crypto bill by 2026 are around 60%. This could create more favorable conditions for the industry's development in the US.
Negative scenario: If Trump does not return and stablecoin yields stagnate, the probability of the bill's passage drops to 25%. In this case, the crypto industry in the US may continue to face ongoing regulatory uncertainty.
Overall, the situation remains highly uncertain, and much will depend on political and economic factors in the coming years. Crypto companies should closely monitor the developments and be prepared for various scenarios.