Cooling inflation in the US - a positive signal for the markets
According to alternative inflation data from Truflation, the US is experiencing a sharp slowdown in consumer price growth. This could be an important signal for the markets, as the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports on the consumer price index (CPI) dynamics are often criticized by experts for not fully reflecting the real picture.
Unlike the official statistics, Truflation's indicators take into account a wide range of real-time data sources, including prices for goods and services on the Internet. According to their estimates, the annual inflation rate in the US in November 2022 was only 7.9% compared to 7.1% according to the BLS.
This divergence could have serious consequences for expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's (Fed) further actions. If inflationary pressures are indeed starting to ease, the regulator may not have to raise the key rate as aggressively, which would positively affect the cryptocurrency and other risky asset markets.
Conclusion
Despite the fact that the official statistics still indicate high inflation in the US, alternative data paints a more optimistic picture. If this trend is confirmed, it could become an important factor influencing investor expectations regarding the Fed's actions and the dynamics of financial markets in 2023. Experts should closely monitor the developments.