Seasonality Adjustments: A Tool That Can Backfire
Optmyzr has published the results of a large-scale study covering more than 5,000 Google Ads accounts. The key finding: seasonality adjustments, which many specialists traditionally apply to prepare for Black Friday and Cyber Monday (BFCM), often produce the opposite effect — reducing campaign performance.
What the Researchers Found
The seasonality adjustment tool lets marketers manually inform Google Ads algorithms about upcoming conversion spikes, such as during sales events. The logic seems simple: if conversions are expected to rise, bids can be lowered to avoid overpaying for clicks. However, Optmyzr's analysis of real peak-season data showed that such adjustments frequently work against advertisers.
- In many accounts seasonality adjustments were set inaccurately — forecasts diverged from actual user behavior.
- Google Ads algorithms already adapt to seasonal fluctuations on their own, and manual tweaks create conflicting signals.
- Lowering bids during periods of intense demand led to lost impressions and missed revenue.
Context for the Traffic Arbitrage Market
For performance marketers and paid traffic specialists, this conclusion is especially relevant: during sales events, auction competition rises sharply, and wrongly lowered bids mean losing impression share at the most profitable moment. This is particularly critical for e-commerce verticals, where the BFCM share of revenue can reach 20-30% of annual turnover.
The Role of AI Agents in BFCM Preparation
Optmyzr also highlights the use of AI agents to prepare for the 2026 sales season. Automated systems can analyze historical data, predict auction behavior, and suggest more accurate strategies than manual adjustments. This shifts the focus from manual management to building adaptive strategies.
Editorial Opinion
The study's results are a signal to the market: blind trust in "proven" Google Ads settings can be costly. Instead of manual seasonality adjustments, it makes more sense to test strategies on historical data, leverage AI-driven automation, and closely monitor metrics in real time. For arbitrage specialists the takeaway is simple: during peak season, rely on data and adaptive algorithms rather than intuitive bid tweaks.